What is the current probability for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 6% on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/153719. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

·Crypto

▲ 0.3pp

24h change

vol cum

$4.6M

vol 24h

$30.9k

spread

0.00

ends

Jan 1, 2027

Yes 6¢

No 94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

Crypto CultureCryptoBitcoinSatoshi

timeline

opened · Jan 9, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

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