Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027
As of 00:52 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Will Tesla release Optimus by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 11% (-1pp in 24h) and “June 30” at 0%. The event has $306 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket.
vol cum
$136.8k
vol 24h
$306
outcomes
2
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
humanoidTeslaTechOptimusBig TechRobot
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
11¢
▼ 0.7pp
24h change
vol cum
$40.3k
vol 24h
$306
spread
0.02
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
