Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.” https://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732 [tweet]This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting. I take "working" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor. Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation of productive labor: Robots dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce would be considered as performing productive labor. Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A robot counts as 'working at Tesla' if it meets all of the following: Deployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations Switched on and active (not just stacked in a corner) Robots still being supervised, still learning, or spending some time on training still count Robots solely in R&D labs and never deployed to an operational facility do not count The 10,000 threshold must be met all at once, not cumulatively Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A scenario where robots must recharge (e.g., half recharging at any given time) still counts toward the 10,000 threshold, as long as 10,000 are deployed at once in a qualifying capacity.
