What is the current probability for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 28% (+9pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/67081. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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marketsingle market

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

·Science and Technology

28%

▲ 8.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$194.6k

vol 24h

$48.5k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 28¢

No 73¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

TechAISamllmchatgptartificial intelligenceOpenAIBig Tech

timeline

opened · Oct 28, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history