Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
As of 10:40 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?” at 12% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $780 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Limitless, Manifold, Kalshi and Opinion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
