event20 outcomes

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Nov 4, 2026

As of 06:24 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 20 markets in “Which Senate races will be within 5%?” on Polymarket are “Texas” at 75% (+1pp in 24h), “Iowa” at 71% (-1pp in 24h) and “Alaska” at 69% (+6pp in 24h). The event has $4.7k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, Manifold and Predict.

vol cum

$153.9k

vol 24h

$4.7k

outcomes

ends

Nov 4, 2026

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showing 5 of 20

SenateMidtermsPoliticsUS ElectionElection Night

marketselected outcome

Texas

rank #1

United States

75¢

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$30.9k

vol 24h

$875

spread

0.04

ends

Nov 4, 2026

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jul 29, 2026opencloses · Nov 4, 2026

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