event17 outcomes

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Nov 4, 2026

As of 05:05 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 17 markets in “Which Senate races will be within 1%?” on Polymarket are “Michigan” at 41% (+25pp in 24h), “Iowa” at 20% and “Nebraska” at 19%. The event has $184 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, Manifold, Predict and Opinion.

vol cum

$13.8k

vol 24h

$184

outcomes

ends

Nov 4, 2026

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SenateMidtermsPoliticsUS Election

marketselected outcome

Michigan

rank #1

United States

41¢

▲ 25.1pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.7k

vol 24h

$40

spread

0.57

ends

Nov 4, 2026

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Aug 21, 2026opencloses · Nov 4, 2026

Michigan · prices over time

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