What is the current probability for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14"?

Current Polymarket odds for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14": October 31 97%, September 30 91%, Super Heavy booster explodes? 91% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jul 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/776884. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

↗

event11 outcomes

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

·Science and Technology·ends Jul 1, 2027

vol cum

$629.9k

vol 24h

$112.6k

outcomes

ends

Jul 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.

TechSpaceXCultureScienceBig TechElon Musk

marketselected outcome

October 31

rank #1

97¢

▲ 0.3pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.2k

vol 24h

$318

spread

0.02

ends

Nov 1, 2026

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

timeline

opened · Jul 31, 2026opencloses · Nov 1, 2026

October 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history