Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
As of 06:04 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?” at 2% (-2pp in 24h). The market has $126 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
