What is the current probability for "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?"?

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?" from polymarket. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/85704. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Source: polymarket·Event ID: 85704·Ends: 12/31/2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Steve Bannon
- Yes: 24¢
- No: 76¢
Pete Buttigieg
- Yes: 16¢
- No: 85¢
Marjorie Taylor Greene
- Yes: 15¢
- No: 85¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Yes: 13¢
- No: 88¢
Gretchen Whitmer
- Yes: 13¢
- No: 88¢
Josh Shapiro
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 89¢
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 89¢
Gavin Newsom
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 90¢
J.D. Vance
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 90¢
Byron Donalds
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Tom Brady
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 91¢
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
- Yes: 9¢
- No: 91¢
Ivanka Trump
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
Erika Kirk
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Donald Trump Jr.
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Hillary Clinton
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Kamala Harris
- Yes: 27¢
- No: 73¢
Mark Cuban
- Yes: 21¢
- No: 79¢
Candace Owens
- Yes: 19¢
- No: 81¢
Andy Beshear
- Yes: 18¢
- No: 82¢
Rahm Emanuel
- Yes: 17¢
- No: 83¢
Mark Kelly
- Yes: 17¢
- No: 84¢
Tucker Carlson
- Yes: 14¢
- No: 86¢
Josh Hawley
- Yes: 14¢
- No: 86¢
J.B. Pritzker
- Yes: 14¢
- No: 86¢
Marco Rubio
- Yes: 14¢
- No: 86¢
Brian Kemp
- Yes: 14¢
- No: 86¢
Ron DeSantis
- Yes: 13¢
- No: 87¢
Beto O’Rourke
- Yes: 12¢
- No: 88¢
Greg Abbott
- Yes: 12¢
- No: 88¢
John Fetterman
- Yes: 12¢
- No: 89¢
Ted Cruz
- Yes: 12¢
- No: 89¢
Gina Raimondo
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 89¢
Matt Gaetz
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 89¢
Andrew Yang
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 89¢
Jared Polis
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 90¢
Liz Cheney
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 90¢
Vivek Ramaswamy
- Yes: 11¢
- No: 90¢
Hunter Biden
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Stephen A. Smith
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Jon Ossoff
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Raphael Warnock
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Phil Murphy
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Oprah Winfrey
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Tulsi Gabbard
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Kristi Noem
- Yes: 10¢
- No: 90¢
Elise Stefanik
- Yes: 9¢
- No: 91¢
Tim Walz
- Yes: 9¢
- No: 92¢
Wes Moore
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
George Clooney
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
John Thune
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
Rand Paul
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
Glenn Youngkin
- Yes: 8¢
- No: 92¢
Don Lemon
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Roy Cooper
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Katie Britt
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Donald Trump
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Cory Booker
- Yes: 7¢
- No: 93¢
Michelle Obama
- Yes: 6¢
- No: 94¢
Bernie Sanders
- Yes: 6¢
- No: 95¢
Kim Kardashian
- Yes: 6¢
- No: 95¢
Zohran Mamdani
- Yes: 5¢
- No: 95¢
Elon Musk
- Yes: 5¢
- No: 96¢
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Jon Stewart
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Barack Obama
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Nikki Haley
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Mike Pence
- Yes: 4¢
- No: 96¢
Chelsea Clinton
- Yes: 3¢
- No: 97¢
LeBron James
- Yes: 3¢
- No: 98¢
MrBeast
- Yes: 2¢
- No: 98¢