As of 04:21 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, “Moonshot” leads “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?” on Predict at 100%, followed by “Z.ai” at 99% and “Anthropic” at 49% (+2pp in 24h), out of 15 outcomes. The event has $217 in Predict-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?” on Polymarket, an event with 26 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 18 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
vol cum
$19.1k
vol 24h
$217
outcomes
15
ends
Dec 31, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 15
TechAI
marketselected outcome
Moonshot
rank #1
100¢
▲ 95.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.99
ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.