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Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? · 81% (+2pp) — Kalshi odds
markets
·
Finance
·
Part of: AI Model Odds →
open
trade on
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event
2 outcomes
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
·
Finance
·
ends Jan 8, 2040
W
vol cum
$306.1k
vol 24h
$277
outcomes
2
ends
Jan 8, 2040
outcomes
click to inspect →
A
Anthropic
81¢
▲ 2.0
pp
O
OpenAI
19¢
▼ 1.0
pp
market
selected outcome
Anthropic
rank #1
A
81¢
▲ 2.0
pp
24h change
vol cum
$160.3k
vol 24h
$166
spread
0.01
ends
Jan 8, 2040
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
timeline
opened
· Aug 6, 2025
open
closes
· Jan 8, 2040
Anthropic · prices over time
24h
7d
30d
all
−24h
now
volume · by outcome
hover a column to inspect
no volume history
similar markets
suggested by pdata
polymarket
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
yes
85
¢
▼ 1.5
pp
$26 24h · 1 market
manifold
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
yes
69
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
kalshi
Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
Before Jan 1, 2027
20
¢
· 0.0
pp
Before Jan 20, 2029
56
¢
· 0.0
pp
Before Jan 1, 2028
29
¢
· 0.0
pp
$2 24h · 3 markets
limitless
OpenAI IPO by __?
July 31, 2026
0
¢
· 0.0
pp
December 31, 2026
23
¢
· 0.0
pp
September 30, 2026
4
¢
▼ 0.1
pp
+2 others
$300 24h · 5 markets
polymarket
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
yes
82
¢
· 0.0
pp
$13 24h · 1 market
manifold
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?
yes
94
¢
▼ 0.1
pp
M1 24h · 1 market
+6 more