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event2 outcomes

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Kalshi·Finance·ends Jan 8, 2040

As of 16:24 UTC on 14 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?” on Kalshi are “Anthropic” at 94% (-1pp in 24h) and “OpenAI” at 17% (+12pp in 24h). The event has $1.6k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 18 related events on Predict, Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

vol cum

$415.2k

vol 24h

$1.6k

outcomes

2

ends

Jan 8, 2040

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Anthropic

rank #1

94¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$209k

vol 24h

$248

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 8, 2040

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 6, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2040

Anthropic · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata

Predict

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

yes92¢▲ 0.1pp

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Manifold

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

M633 24h · 0 markets

Polymarket

Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

$0 24h · 1 market

Kalshi

Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?

Before Jan 20, 202947¢· 0.0ppBefore Jan 1, 202832¢· 0.0ppBefore Jan 1, 202716¢

$0 24h · 3 markets

Predict

OpenAI IPO by...?

June 30, 202735¢▼ 3.5ppMarch 31, 202723¢· 0.0ppDecember 31, 20264¢· 0.0pp

$310 24h · 4 markets

Manifold

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

M0 24h · 1 market