What is the current probability for "Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?": Before Jan 1, 2030 43%, Before Jan 1, 2029 33%, Before Jan 1, 2028 19% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/8/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTAIWANLVL4. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event5 outcomes

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2030

vol cum

$476.1k

vol 24h

$1.1k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2030

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2030

rank #1

United StatesTaiwan

43¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$21.5k

vol 24h

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 8, 2030

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jan 7, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2030

Before Jan 1, 2030 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event5 outcomes

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2030

vol cum

$476.1k

vol 24h

$1.1k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2030

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2030

rank #1

United StatesTaiwan

43¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$21.5k

vol 24h

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 8, 2030

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jan 7, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2030

Before Jan 1, 2030 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history