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If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Manifold·World
ChinaTaiwanUnited States
46%
vol cum
M15k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2099
YES 46¢
NO 54¢

This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing. This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends. If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES. Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A.

timeline
opened · Aug 3, 2023opencloses · Dec 31, 2099
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly? · prices over time
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