Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?"?

Accepted Answer

"YES" is currently 46% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2040.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/1SWyAELMPbMmu0lRa5YT. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

similar markets