marketsingle market
When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?
ChinaTaiwanUnited States
41%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M3k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 15, 2030
YES 41¢
NO 59¢
Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side. So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO. Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES.
who-does-xi-think-he-ischinataiwanaustraliaxi-jinping
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opened · May 6, 2026opencloses · Dec 15, 2030