Will China invade Taiwan before July?

### Market Dates: - **Market Period:** From the market’s publication date to June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. ### **Yes/No Criteria:** - Resolves to “Yes” if during the Market Period, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) commences a military offensive intended to gain control over territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan) — including the main island of Taiwan or any inhabited outlying islands — in a manner consistent with a military invasion or assault. - “*Commences a military offensive*” refers to the initiation of coordinated armed force with the demonstrable intent to seize, occupy, or control territory, and does not include military exercises, airspace incursions, naval patrols, cyber operations, or other grey-zone activities that do not involve territorial seizure. - Resolves to “No” if this does not occur during the Market Period. ### **Resolution Sources:** - Primary resolution sources include official statements or confirmations from: - **People’s Republic of China (State Council / Ministry of National Defense):** <https://english.www.gov.cn/> - **Taiwan – Ministry of National Defense:** <https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en> - **United Nations (official statements, Security Council briefings):** <https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en> - Secondary confirmation may come from consensus reporting by major international news organizations, including: - **Reuters:** <https://www.reuters.com/> - **Associated Press:** <https://apnews.com/> - **BBC News:** <https://www.bbc.com/news> - Only reporting that clearly establishes both timing and territorial intent will be considered valid for resolution — specifically, the timing must confirm that the event occurred during the Market Period. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - All listed resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable. - Any situation arises that makes it impossible to conclusively determine whether a qualifying military offensive occurred by the Resolution Time. If the market is cancelled, participants may reclaim their positions at the market value of their shares at the time of cancellation.