Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?” at 36%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

36%

vol cum

M81.6k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2030

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