Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

Manifold·World

As of 08:27 UTC on 10 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?” at 61%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

Market will resolve when there are verified reports of a nuclear detonation for any reason. But it must be a weapon that was detonated and not some sort of accident.