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Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 10:55 UTC on 20 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will the first AGI be a large language model?” at 63%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

63%
vol cum
M6.8k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Feb 1, 2040
YES 63¢
NO 37¢

AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task. Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.

timeline
opened · Apr 18, 2024opencloses · Feb 1, 2040
Will the first AGI be a large language model? · prices over time
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