What organization will be the first to create AGI?
As of 20:57 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, “Anthropic” leads “What organization will be the first to create AGI?” on Manifold at 32%, followed by “OpenAI” at 23% and “DeepMind” at 18%, out of 12 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
I'm defining AGI as an algorithm that can do any human white collar job. If things get complicated I might resolve if a single algorithm can perform better than humans on all the most common AI benchmarks in text, vision, and audio. The common LLM benchmarks: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard The most common vision tasks: https://scale.com/blog/best-10-public-datasets-object-detection And the Audio Tasks / Datasets mentioned here: https://huggingface.co/blog/audio-datasets If a single algorithm can do better than a human on all of these tasks, I think it is almost certain that it can do most any desk job. And I would resolve this question with the creator of that algorithm. [link preview]
