A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
As of 17:44 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, “North America” leads “A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?” on Manifold at 81%, followed by “Europe” at 10% and “Asia” at 9%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other. In case company will be multinational, place of their HQ will be considered. If it will be research program or joint venture by multiple companies the majority state will be considered. Feel free to add other continents if you feel so. Criteria to be used for AGI will be the same as the one in the long bet: https://longbets.org/1/ Duration will be extended as needed. I will not participate in this market. Props to @Gen for financing it.
