Who will be first to AGI

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Jan 30, 2050

As of 00:47 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, “Google” leads “Who will be first to AGI” on Manifold at 31%, followed by “OpenAI” at 27% and “China government” at 13%, out of 10 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold.