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Which company will create AGI first? · Anthropic 27% — Manifold odds
markets
·
Science and Technology
·
Part of: AI Model Odds →
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20 outcomes
Which company will create AGI first?
·
Science and Technology
·
ends Jan 1, 2036
vol cum
M5.8k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
20
ends
Jan 1, 2036
outcomes
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A
Anthropic
27¢
· 0.0
pp
O
OpenAI
20¢
· 0.0
pp
U
US Government
13¢
· 0.0
pp
D
DeepMind
9¢
· 0.0
pp
C
Communist Party of China
9¢
· 0.0
pp
showing 5 of 20
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If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
technology-default
ai
business
market
selected outcome
Anthropic
rank #1
A
27¢
· 0.0
pp
24h change
vol cum
M210
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2036
timeline
opened
· Dec 8, 2022
open
closes
· Jan 1, 2036
Anthropic · prices over time
24h
7d
30d
all
−24h
now
volume · by outcome
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similar markets
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manifold
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Anthropic
29
¢
· 0.0
pp
OpenAI
23
¢
· 0.0
pp
DeepMind
19
¢
· 0.0
pp
+9 others
M0 24h · 12 markets
kalshi
When will any company achieve AGI?
Before Oct 1, 2026
4
¢
▼ 3.0
pp
Before Jul 1, 2028
57
¢
▼ 4.0
pp
Before Jan 1, 2028
50
¢
▲ 3.0
pp
+10 others
$120 24h · 13 markets
manifold
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
North America
81
¢
· 0.0
pp
Asia
9
¢
· 0.0
pp
Europe
9
¢
· 0.0
pp
+2 others
M0 24h · 5 markets
manifold
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Anthropic
29
¢
· 0.0
pp
Google
18
¢
· 0.0
pp
OpenAI
16
¢
· 0.0
pp
+10 others
M0 24h · 13 markets
manifold
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
yes
67
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
manifold
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet
29
¢
· 0.0
pp
Anthropic
27
¢
· 0.0
pp
OpenAI/Microsoft
22
¢
· 0.0
pp
+5 others
M0 24h · 8 markets
+6 more