Which company will create AGI first?

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2036

As of 00:17 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, “OpenAI” leads “Which company will create AGI first?” on Manifold at 27%, followed by “Anthropic” at 22% and “US Government” at 10%, out of 20 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.