opentrade on 
↗
event20 outcomes
Which company will create AGI first?
vol cum
M4.9k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
20
ends
Jan 1, 2036
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 20
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
technology-defaultaibusiness
marketselected outcome
Anthropic
rank #1
26¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M116
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2036
timeline
opened · Dec 8, 2022opencloses · Jan 1, 2036
prices over time · Anthropic highlighted
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history
similar markets
suggested by pdataWhat organization will be the first to create AGI?
DeepMind29¢· 0.0ppOpenAI25¢· 0.0ppAnthropic16¢· 0.0pp
+9 others
M0 24h · 12 markets
kalshiWhen will any company achieve AGI?
Before Jul 1, 20262¢· 0.0ppBefore Oct 1, 202741¢· 0.0ppBefore Oct 1, 20266¢▲ 1.0pp
+10 others
$589 24h · 13 markets
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
North America79¢· 0.0ppAsia14¢· 0.0ppEurope6¢· 0.0pp
+2 others
M0 24h · 5 markets
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Anthropic29¢· 0.0ppGoogle18¢· 0.0ppOpenAI16¢· 0.0pp
+10 others
M0 24h · 13 markets
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
yes67¢· 0.0pp
M0 24h · 1 market
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet32¢· 0.0ppOpenAI/Microsoft23¢· 0.0ppAnthropic21¢· 0.0pp
+5 others
M0 24h · 8 markets