Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?": Anthropic 29%, Google 18%, OpenAI 16% (top 3 of 13 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2101.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/HQumfVU5DjuwC3JPo0BH. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

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