Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
As of 13:16 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?” at 68%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
AGI may come from either a company or another entity. A company is defined as a legal entity as defined by the country in which the company is incorporated or founded. Companies involved in selling model access over an API are companies such as OpenAI, Google Gemini or Anthropic. Companies who are AGI players but do not sell model access as a service over an API include X.com, Tesla, Apple, and others. (as of Aug 31th, 2024) AGI is defined as a single artificially intelligent model that is capable of solving any Human-complete task.
