event2 outcomes
Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?
Manifold·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2045
As of 05:18 UTC on 6 Aug 2026, “Donald Trump” leads “Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?” on Manifold at 67%, followed by “Joe Biden” at 33%, out of 2 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Jan 1, 2045
outcomesclick to inspect →
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the two oldest candidates to ever run for the US presidency. They have both passed the median life expectancy in the US (77.26 years). Both have publicly displayed signs of cognitive decline and both have already experienced declining health from the demands of the presidency. This market resolves based on the person's age when they expire.
us-politicspolitics-default2024-us-presidential-electionhealthmental-health
