marketsingle market
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
United StatesIran
10%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M90.2k
vol 24h
M58
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2026
YES 10¢
NO 90¢
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026. Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting. If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question. I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).
warsiranisraeliran-conflictiranian-politicsmiddle-east
timeline
opened · Mar 3, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026
