Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?

Manifold·World

United StatesIran

As of 04:35 UTC on 26 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?” at 9%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Opinion and Kalshi.

Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026. Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting. If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question. I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).