What is the current probability for "Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)"?

"YES" is currently 86% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/28/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

·Science and Technology

United States

86%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M22.3k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 28, 2027

YES 86¢

NO 14¢

Based on this article: https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/ For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars. The orbit has to be stable OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count. I’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No.

timeline

opened · Nov 24, 2023opencloses · Dec 28, 2027

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) · prices over time

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