Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Manifold·Science and Technology

United States

As of 14:19 UTC on 22 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)” at 86%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.

Based on this article: https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/ For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars. The orbit has to be stable OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count. I’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No.