event22 outcomes
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto
Manifold·Crypto·ends Jul 7, 2030
As of 09:07 UTC on 21 Aug 2026, “Other” leads “Who is Satoshi Nakamoto” on Manifold at 31%, followed by “Adam Back” at 24% and “Hal Finney” at 15%, out of 22 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion.
vol cum
M12.2k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
22
ends
Jul 7, 2030
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Update 2026-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "someone who is currently dead" option will be resolved to N/A, as it conflicts with other answer options (e.g., Hal Finney, Len Sassaman) in this dependent-choice market.
doxxingbitcoincrypto-speculation
