Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
As of 22:44 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?” on Manifold are “Adam Back” at 31%, “Nick Szabo” at 2% and “Hal Finney” at 2%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion.
If any of the listed are confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto by the close date, their market will resolve YES. Otherwise they will resolve NO. There can be more than 1 resolved YES if Satoshi is proven to be multiple people. This will resolve based on either reporting from a reputable source (major news organization) and preferably the Satoshi Nakamoto Wikipedia page would also be updated. If I'm missing anyone, feel free to comment and I will add them.
