What is the current probability for "Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?"?

"YES" is currently 13% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?

·Science and Technology

13%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M5.8k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2030

YES 13¢

NO 87¢

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1). Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 (this question) @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 Numeric market: @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors Other reference points for fusion reactors: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c Other questions for 2030: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa @/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.

timeline

opened · Jan 17, 2024opencloses · Mar 1, 2030

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