What is the current probability for "Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?"?

"YES" is currently 27% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2032.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?

·Science and Technology

27%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M6.5k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2032

YES 27¢

NO 73¢

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2032 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1). Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 (this question) @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 Numeric market: @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors Other reference points for fusion reactors: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c Other questions for 2032: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 @/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d @/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f @/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2032 @/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d @/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d @/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.

timeline

opened · Jan 24, 2024opencloses · Mar 1, 2032

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