Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?
As of 22:31 UTC on 22 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?” at 5%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
We have the technology to block the sun. Global Warming is predicted to cause mass dessertification over the next century causing social upheaval. Many of these affected countries have ballistic technology which could in theory be used to obstruct the sun. Part Geo Engineering or supervillan plan it is within our abilities. Solar energy is the cheapest and best technology right now for the west and decarbonization. It would be a shame if Putin, Elon, or China nukes the sky to slow climate change and basically fuck solar energy markets. Market will resolve yes if geoengineering projects in the sky at a large scale have verified negative affects against solar panels. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/AEagAcFP1II)
