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If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
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Jan 1, 2200
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This market resolves once either of the following are true: AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get. There appears to be no more significant danger from AI. It resolves to the option that seems closest to the explanation of why we didn't all die. If multiple reasons seem like they all significantly contributed, I may resolve to a mix among them. If you want to know what option a specific scenario would fall under, describe it to me and we'll figure out what it seems closest to. If you think this list of reasons isn't exhaustive, or is a bad way to partition the possibility space, feel free to suggest alternatives. See also Eliezer's more fine-grained version of this question here.
ai-riskaiai-safetyai-alignmenttechnology-defaultfuturism
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There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.
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Jan 1, 2200
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opened · Feb 22, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2200
There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. · prices over time
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suggested by pdataIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)18¢· 0.0ppJ. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.11¢· 0.0ppSomething wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)11¢· 0.0pp
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