Question 1

What is the current probability for "If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?": There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. 31%, Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 30%, High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals. 13% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2200.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

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