What is the current probability for "Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?": 10 Million Americans have as their primary romantic partner an AI 65%, 10 Million Americans have a home robot for basic household cleaning and other tasks 35% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/11/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/ht0vTOGVsai0IxjAxIuO. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event2 outcomes

Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?

·Science and Technology·ends Dec 11, 2030

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I will go by the best available evidence on each of them (I anticipate it’ll mostly be survey-based, or based on sales numbers). Clarifications (I’ll try to add these over time): 1) For the home robot, it has to be either a humanoid robot, or at least a robot capable of a relatively wide variety of tasks (e.g. a Roomba or similar currently available vacuum “robot” won’t count). 2) For the AI partner, it has to be the main romantic partner, and not just occasional use. Based on Erik Brynjolfsson’s tweet: https://x.com/erikbryn/status/1742689261890224612?s=46&t=A87brvrcPNLRU2RL6LBEZQ

ai-impactstechnology-defaultroboticstechnical-ai-timelinesaisociety

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10 Million Americans have as their primary romantic partner an AI

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