Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?
As of 13:29 UTC on 5 May 2026, “10 Million Americans have as their primary romantic partner an AI” leads “Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?” on Manifold at 65%, followed by “10 Million Americans have a home robot for basic household cleaning and other tasks” at 35%, out of 2 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
I will go by the best available evidence on each of them (I anticipate it’ll mostly be survey-based, or based on sales numbers). Clarifications (I’ll try to add these over time): 1) For the home robot, it has to be either a humanoid robot, or at least a robot capable of a relatively wide variety of tasks (e.g. a Roomba or similar currently available vacuum “robot” won’t count). 2) For the AI partner, it has to be the main romantic partner, and not just occasional use. Based on Erik Brynjolfsson’s tweet: https://x.com/erikbryn/status/1742689261890224612?s=46&t=A87brvrcPNLRU2RL6LBEZQ
