Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
Sam Altman: I expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes Will this statement prove true? Resolution will be based on my best subjective judgment, taking into account all information sources, available experts, and so on. Resolves to YES if there is a period of at least one year, during which at least one AI is clearly superhuman at persuasion, meaning at least as persuasive as history's most persuasive humans. Note: It should therefore be able to persuade us of this! But of course we must consider the possibility that it tries to persuade us that this is not true, which can make things tricky. I will do my best. Resolves to NO if superhuman intelligence in general (no weasaling on this by pointing out some odd exception, if it's mostly better than the best humans at various things it counts, spirit is what matters here) is achieved first, or if it is achieved less than a year after super-persuasion. (Warning: If dead, I cannot resolve this.)
