Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
As of 16:12 UTC on 9 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)” at 66%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide. Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count. But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine. Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments. For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes. If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes. However if the United Nations considers this not a genocide (if UN doesn’t change by then) it will resolve no. If the UN doesn’t get involved this will resolve with more of a discussion. For those who don’t know here is the UN’s definition of genocide https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml I will not bet in this market in case of controversy.
