Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
As of 04:30 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?” at 16% (+1pp in 24h). The market has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi and Limitless.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
