When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Source: manifold·Event ID: tfhJXotr1REPGyNl3Hg2·Ends:
Other is the "after everything else" option. If it gets to more than 50% I'll add an answer. I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war [image]Details: I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article. This is only about the war between Israel and hamas. If a war between Israel and Lebanon (or another power) breaks out, that will not affect this market. I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period (or longer if I judge that there are still edit wars) If there was an escalation that bought in new countries (enough that there's a new name for the conflict), I'll choose the Wikipedia page that is closest to talking about only the Gaza part of the war. I will likely edit the description in response to good suggestions. I will not bet in this market unless to normalise after adding a new option. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-us-public-opinion-shift-toward-6537f84f108e)
Markets
Other
- YES: 43¢
- NO: 57¢
Jan - Jun 2027
- YES: 32¢
- NO: 68¢
Jul - Dec 2026
- YES: 18¢
- NO: 82¢
Jan - Jun 2026
- YES: 4¢
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Jul - Dec 2025
- YES: 1¢
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Jan - Jun 2025
- YES: 1¢
- NO: 99¢
Jul - Dec 2024
- YES: 0¢
- NO: 100¢
Jan - Jun 2024
- YES: 0¢
- NO: 100¢