event4 outcomes
Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?
Manifold·Politics·ends Jan 3, 2027
As of 21:35 UTC on 9 Oct 2026, “No peace, no Nobel” leads “Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?” on Manifold at 97%, followed by “Peace but no Nobel” at 2% and “No peace, Nobel anyway” at 0%, out of 4 outcomes. The event has M$6.2k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Gemini, Polymarket and Kalshi.
vol cum
M13.5k
vol 24h
M6.2k
outcomes
4
ends
Jan 3, 2027
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Peace before 2027. There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen. This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets: [markets]Previously: @/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2025-nobel-peace
donald-trumptrumps-second-termacademic-awardsukrainerussia-war
