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opentrade on Manifold ↗
event2 outcomes

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Dec 31, 2026
W
vol cum
M15.4k
vol 24h
M162
outcomes
2
ends
Dec 31, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →

OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending. Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven. Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO. Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO. If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.

aiopenaitechnical-ai-timelinestechnology-defaultai-impacts
marketselected outcome
Anthropic
rank #1
United States
A
70¢
▼ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
M113
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2026
timeline
opened · Jun 1, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026
prices over time · Anthropic highlighted
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

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