If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?” at 37%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
Definitions for this question: "ASI" = an emergent artificial intelligence with power or capabilities beyond human understanding "doesn't wipe out humanity" = humans still exist, and they still have biological bodies (modifications okay) and individual consciousnesses "natural death" = sickness, old age, genetic disorders, etc. (Doesn't include: accidents, war, foul play, divine reckoning of any variety, etc.) "be cured" = at minimum, all consenting humans are protected from natural death (by oversight, treatments, augmentation, or whatnot), and at least 50% of humanity's living population has been offered said protection "within 5 years" = 5 years from ASI, as best as can be determined This resolves N/A if ASI is not achieved by market close or humans are all wiped out. Close date is highly speculative and may be adjusted if there's reasonable potential for a non-N/A resolution. As presumably this question is regarding post-Singularity events, my attempts at definitions are likely insufficient. Take to the comments if you have suggestions for improvements that are in the spirit of the market.