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Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 04:06 UTC on 11 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)” at 32%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket.

32%
vol cum
M8.8k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 30, 2030
YES 32¢
NO 68¢

Merge = a major integrated effort, instead of a few disjointed collaborative projects. A significant amount of resources shared. Doesnt have to form a single merged company or organization of a kind, but a systematic sharing of resources, research, and personnel exclusive to this partnership is a resolution criteria. OpenAI has a "merge and assist" clause as well, which would also satisfy it. Please ask questions about the resolution criteria to help me narrow it down to avoid confusions later.

timeline
opened · Jun 19, 2023opencloses · Dec 30, 2030
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy) · prices over time
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