Who will win the new race to the Moon?

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2033

As of 10:32 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, “USA” leads “Who will win the new race to the Moon?” on Manifold at 55%, followed by “China” at 41% and “Other” at 3%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Opinion and Polymarket.

There are many nations and organizations that have plans about going to the Moon. And some of the plans are more ambitious than realistic. What nationality will the next human to set foot on the moon have? This bet will be resolved the day after the event has happened. Unsuccessful landings and scrabs does not count. The astronauts needs to survive the landing for it to count.