By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
As of 17:22 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?” at 29%. The market has M$5.5k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications: A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
