As of 18:17 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 3 markets in “France declares state of emergency by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 19% (-31pp in 24h), “October 31” at 16% (-34pp in 24h) and “October 21” at 7% (-43pp in 24h). The event has $6.9k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$6.3k
vol 24h
$6.9k
outcomes
3
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
WorldEuropeFrancePoliticsProtestsFrance Riots
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
France
19¢
▼ 31.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$2.4k
vol 24h
$2.4k
spread
0.01
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
