France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
Polymarket·World·ends Jan 1, 2027
As of 18:59 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 3 markets in “France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 3% (-47pp in 24h), “November 15” at 2% (-48pp in 24h) and “October 31” at 1% (-48pp in 24h). The event has $14.5k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$22.1k
vol 24h
$14.5k
outcomes
3
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
WorldEuropeFrancePoliticsProtestsFrance Riots
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
France
3¢
▼ 47.3pp
24h change
vol cum
$8.8k
vol 24h
$16.6k
spread
0.03
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
