Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Dec 1, 2026
As of 03:01 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, “No release by November 30” leads “Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?” on Polymarket at 35% (-13pp in 24h), followed by “November 12” at 14% (-36pp in 24h) and “November 30” at 13% (-37pp in 24h), out of 32 outcomes. The event has $3.6k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
vol cum
$3.6k
vol 24h
$3.6k
outcomes
32
ends
Dec 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 32
AITechClaudeAnthropicRecurringAI ReleasesClaude Opus
marketselected outcome
No release by November 30
rank #1
35¢
▼ 13.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$309
vol 24h
$309
spread
0.20
ends
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.