event10 outcomes

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 14:27 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “None in 2026” leads “Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?” on Polymarket at 68% (+1pp in 24h), followed by “Anthropic” at 18% (+1pp in 24h) and “Google” at 15% (+1pp in 24h), out of 10 outcomes. The event has $50 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket.

vol cum

$135.2k

vol 24h

$50

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

OpenAIAIxAIgoogleBig TechDeepSeekgptAnthropic

marketselected outcome

None in 2026

rank #1

68¢

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$27.8k

vol 24h

$50

spread

0.09

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

timeline

opened · Feb 13, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

None in 2026 · prices over time

−24h

now

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